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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest shock.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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