A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
